In April, the domestic corn market saw continuous price increases as expected in a bullish atmosphere. If not surprisingly, the market will continue to fluctuate and rise before the May Day holiday. According to market data, the current average price of corn has increased by more than 80 yuan/ton from the low point at the beginning of the month; among them, the listed corn price of enterprises in the production area and the quotation of port traders have increased significantly, with the highest cumulative increase of more than 200 yuan/ton. However, the situation has suddenly undergone a "180-degree change" in the near future. Near the May Day, grain prices in the production areas and ports have maintained overall stability, and local fluctuations have been small, while the southern corn market has begun to experience concentrated price increases, and its rising momentum has been strong and continuous. There was a large-scale price increase in the two days, and the main reason was that the stocking mode opened by downstream enterprises before May Day triggered the emergence of strong market conditions.

It stands to reason that the corn market in the northeast and the Huanghuai production areas of north China where grain-consuming enterprises are concentrated should have seen price increases under the guidance of the "festival effect." Why has the recent performance been so stable? Mainly due to the sufficient replenishment of enterprises in the production areas in the early stage, the current inventory of deep processing enterprises in North China has increased compared with last year, most of which are more than 20 days. Enterprises adjust the purchase price according to the arrival and inventory conditions. In about 1 month. Therefore, most companies have maintained a cautious attitude and their purchasing enthusiasm has decreased compared with the previous period.

　　 Regarding the corn market after May 1st, we believe that with the continued reduction of grassroots grain sources, the corn market supply will enter a seasonal period of non-consistency, and the overall trend of corn prices is likely to rise but hardly fall. However, it is worth noting that after a month of recovery in corn prices, we still need to be more vigilant:

　　 On the one hand, the amount of imported grains to Hong Kong has increased. It is reported that China has begun to purchase US corn harvested this fall, and traders expect sales to reach at least 1 million tons. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, US exporters have sold 20 million tons of corn to China so far this quarter, a record high. In addition, the quantity of imported sorghum arriving in Hong Kong in the second quarter will also gradually increase. It is expected that imported grains will have a certain impact on the corn market.

　　 On the other hand, the popularization of substitution effect. On April 20, the Feed Industry Association announced the "Technical Plan for Substitution of Corn and Soy Meal Reduction". It has been more than one month since the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Notice on Promoting the Substitution of Corn and Soy Meal Reduction" in mid-March. Feed companies in some regions also began to replace corn with wheat and rice as early as last year, which would squeeze the corn's feed market share.

On the whole, there is still room for domestic corn prices to rise after May 1st, but the price rise is limited. Although the corn market will gradually deepen after entering May, a huge amount of imported corn and other grains will continue to arrive in Hong Kong in the later period. Seasonal wheat began to be marketed sporadically. All parties have shifted their bullish focus to market conditions in June and July, but it is unlikely that a catty will exceed 2 yuan; focus on the pace of grain sales by traders, the arrival of imported corn, and policy news.